2-5-18 Daily Blog: Light Snow Tonight; Ice & Snow Likely Tue Night
A pretty nasty mess is headed for the area over the next 36 hours. This will come in two waves.
The first wave arrives this evening. Snow will overtake much of Indiana as we head past 7pm. This will be a fast-moving clipper system. It could put down some impressive totals in far northern Indiana, closer to Lake Michigan.
For Southern Indiana, expect a light coating to maybe up to an inch with this. Probably less than a half inch, to be quite honest. As you get a little more north, 1-2 inches of snow looks reasonable tonight. Kentucky will miss out on this first wave.
The second wave arrives on Tuesday late evening and that’s the one that will have the most impact to Southern Indiana and Kentucky. Here’s how the Euro sees this event. This includes both waves. Notice the pink shading with the second wave. That’s a swath of ice likely to impact portions of the area along and near the Ohio River on Tuesday night.
All of the models are suggesting this. Here is the latest GFS, showing a very similar idea.
Here is my first stab at accumulations. Areas in the red shading can expect a light glaze of ice, up to a quarter inch of ice total. Modeling indicates this falls as freezing rain, but if you remember back to our winter storm last month, models did the same thing and it mostly fell as sleet. Let’s hope for a repeat if we have to have ice. No ice is welcome, but sleet won’t take down power lines like freezing rain will. Let’s hope for the best. After the ice moves through, it will change over to snow and an inch or so will be possible in those areas that see the ice. Further north, the blue shading will see almost all snow and there you could get 1-3 inches of snow. The green area will mostly just stay plain ‘ol rain and miss out on this wintry side.
- Look for the onset of precipitation to occur after dark Tuesday evening. The exact timing can be fine tuned tomorrow. This will mainly be an overnight event, it seems.
- Ice will change over to snow late in the overnight hours in the areas that do see the ice. It will snow much of the night in areas that just see snow.
- The system will mostly be done by the time the Wednesday morning commute takes place.
- Travel impacts are highly likely with this. The morning commute on Wednesday looks rough. I would not be surprised to see a lot of school closing and/or delays on Wednesday.
I’ll have much more on this as we head closer to the event. Look for a video update later tonight, as well as live updates throughout the evening as the first wave moves through. Be sure to follow Southern Indiana Weather on Facebook and @WilhiteWx on Twitter for continuing coverage.